How long will old resorts last?

With Boyd Gaming's announcement of its $4 billion Echelon Place project set to break ground in 2007, the trend toward five-star, multibillion-dollar, condominium-hotel megaresorts continues its inexorable march north along the Las Vegas Strip.

Circus Circus and other north Strip properties may ultimately be pushed out of the area because of rapidly escalating land prices, which are dooming older, mid-level resorts.

Outposts of old-school Vegas that have recently fallen to the condo-hotel blitzkrieg include the clown-festooned Boardwalk Hotel & Casino, the Westward Ho Casino and its little sister, The Ho. This spring, Harrah's Entertainment is expected to announce redevelopment at the Strip-Flamingo intersection, one that could agglomerate Harrah's Las Vegas, the Imperial Palace, the Flamingo Hilton, O'Shea's, the defunct Bourbon Street Hotel & Casino and even Bally's-Las Vegas into one super megaresort.

Does this onslaught of capital-intensive development exert pressure on pre-Mirage casino-hotels to reinvent themselves? The Hotel San Remo is receiving a facelift and augmentation, reopening on Super Bowl weekend under the Hooters banner, while Tropicana Resort & Casino has -- again -- stopped taking room reservations, leading some Vegas observers to believe that owner Aztar Corp. is serious about redeveloping the site. Maybe.

New Frontier Hotel & Casino owner Phil Ruffin's $150 million sale of a Bahamas resort last April was taken as a harbinger that a re-do of the New Frontier was imminent, but nothing has been announced.

Likewise, all is quiet at the Sahara Hotel & Casino, but Riviera Holdings Corp. took a stand-pat approach to its signature Strip property last November. A possible takeover by a group of real estate and gaming executives may change all that (see story on page 3).

As for that other clown-themed casino, Circus Circus, MGM Mirage CEO Terrence Lanni has stated that the sprawling hotel/motel/RV park complex makes inefficient use of its acreage. However, a consensus of industry observers agrees that MGM Mirage is unlikely to do anything with Jay Sarno's aging clown palace so long as it has Project CityCenter on its plate.

Echoing previous comments by Lanni, MGM Mirage spokesman Alan Feldman says the Circus Circus site has 27 acres of open-air parking and low-rise buildings "that are not efficient at all." But he says the aforementioned consensus is correct and "that question (of redevelopment) is, at a minimum, five years away. Currently, the market is served extremely well at all ends," Feldman said, and Lanni has gone on record, saying that one of the attractions of the Mandalay Resort Group portfolio was that it gives MGM Mirage a presence in all price niches of the Strip market.

CB Richard Ellis analyst Carlton Geer isn't quite buying MGM Mirage's official stance. "They've have a lot of plans that none of us is privy to," he said. "It's still a good earner for them," Curtis said of Circus Circus. "Right next to them might be the last real bargain bastion, Slots A Fun," he chuckled.

Dave Schwartz, director of the Center for Gaming Research at UNLV, speculates that "MGM might have their hands tied because they may have agreed not to knock (casinos like Circus Circus and Excalibur) all down and build them all upscale." (Feldman flatly denies that there is any such agreement.) "I think they want to adhere to Steve Wynn's vision of being the General Motors of the Strip," Schwartz said, "where you've got rooms in every price point."

Down at the New Frontier, "we're seeing a significant amount of [residential] investment by (Donald) Trump on that site," reported Brian Gordon of Las Vegas-based Applied Analysis. "We have yet to see any definitive plans out of Ruffin." "If the residential portion wouldn't work out," added Los Angeles-based stock analyst Saul Leonard, "that project would be very, very suspect."

Geer is more sanguine, saying that Ruffin will do something; it's merely a question of when. "There's been too much smoke not for there to be a little fire," is Las Vegas Advisor Publisher Anthony Curtis' summary of the consensus. While he doesn't go as far as "Doug" on the ratevegas.com blog, who wrote, "The Frontier will look like a trailer park surrounded by luxury if something isn't done," Curtis allows, "I can't see (leveling) a Frontier and putting up a Frontier-style property" in its place.

Although Aztar Corp. filed redevelopment schematics for the Tropicana with Clark County last July, earlier this month it was reported that the company had retained noted casino designer-developer Tony Marnell to come up with a plan of his own. Aztar would neither confirm nor deny the arrangement. "In the current environment, having a particular contractor on board -- particularly one of (Marnell's) magnitude -- indicates some redevelopment plans are in place," Gordon said. However, Leonard couldn't disagree more. "Just because they signed Tony doesn't mean anything. A lot of things still have to come to fruition."

Those may include whether Aztar can definitely commit to the project after years of public vacillation. "They've been doing it so long that I have a hard time getting any kind of read on them," said Curtis. "I'm almost bored to sleep by that property. They never seem to pull the trigger over there." Geer believes Aztar eventually will. Meanwhile, he thinks it's missing a business opportunity but capital availability might be an issue. "(Aztar) is not the type of company that moves precipitously, so they're going to continue to evaluate it," Leonard agreed. He noted that Aztar's pursuit of a casino license in Pennsylvania could lower the priority of the Tropicana still further.

Gordon expects a joint-venture development on the site, while Schwartz goes still further, observing that the strong performance of Aztar's Atlantic City Tropicana could make the company an attractive takeover target. MGM Mirage and Harrah's are possibilities, he said, but their hands are already full. Instead, he thinks a non-Vegas operator like Ameristar Casinos might enter the fray, especially since "the real value is with the land and the location."

The bottom line, for Curtis, is that the price of prime real estate is driving the redevelopment bus. "What's pushing these (mid-tier) places out is land values. They can't stand up to an offer that maximizes their return more than anything they can do." He cites the Imperial Palace, one of the last of the mavericks on the Strip. "They couldn't turn their back on what they were able to get from a buyout."

Thanks to David McKee

Chinese New Year turning into a lucrative holiday for Las Vegas Strip hotels

The lunar calendar unleashes the Year of the Dog on Sunday and Las Vegas casinos hope to take a bite out of Asian gamblers' wallets. Marketing to Asian -- particularly Chinese -- gamblers is Management 101 for casino bosses. Just about anybody who works in a casino knows that many Chinese believe the color red and the number 8 are lucky and that the number 4 is unlucky. Many Las Vegas Strip properties have decorated their lobbies and casinos with orange trees, red lanterns, gold coins and other Chinese symbols of luck and prosperity.

Caesars Palace's top executive will be on hand Feb. 4 for a traditional "painting of the eye" lion ceremony in front of the property. The Venetian will host a dragon dance, complete with firecrackers and traditional music, in its casino on Saturday. At the MGM Grand Garden Arena, Chinese singer Paula Tsui will perform in Mandarin and Cantonese on Saturday and Sunday.

For non-Chinese, the public displays are an intriguing and colorful nod to an important ethnic group. For Las Vegas casinos, it's a business imperative. Chinese New Year, also known as Lunar New Year, has grown from a small, private welcome for Asian high rollers to a more mainstream event for middle-income Chinese and Asian-Americans. It now ranks as one of the biggest gambling events of the year for Las Vegas, vying for second place with the Super Bowl, behind New Year's Eve, experts say. Hotels are expecting 100 percent occupancy this weekend in advance of the celebration, which begins Sunday and lasts for two weeks.

A Chinese propensity to gamble is a long-held truism in Las Vegas that has yet to be documented with any accuracy. But some say there is a cultural basis for gambling during Chinese New Year -- a holiday that is inextricably tied to testing one's luck. If a person wins a wager, it could bring new luck for the rest of the year, or so the tradition goes. Losing a bet could rid the bettor of bad luck that's accumulated over the past year.

"Chinese New Year is really a time for serious gambling," said Bill Eadington, professor of economics and director of the Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming at UNR. "It's really a time to test destiny."

While Las Vegas casinos don't specifically disclose their Chinese New Year business, the holiday is a boon for their baccarat tables -- the game most favored by Asian high rollers. Gamblers wagered $754 million at Strip baccarat tables in February -- 66 percent higher than January's $453 million and 170 percent above March's $279 million. Last year, Chinese New Year began Feb. 9.

MGM Mirage, Las Vegas' biggest Strip casino operator and owner of at least three hotels -- MGM Grand, Bellagio and Mirage -- that cater to Asians of various incomes has witnessed a steady increase in the number of Asian travelers in town for Chinese New Year. The event has also boosted business each year at the Venetian, which has cultivated a loyal Asian following and is now marketing the property with a casino it owns in the Chinese enclave of Macau. "It's a very important time of year for us," Venetian spokesman Ron Reese said. The property will host more than 200 VIP players this year.

MGM Mirage spokesman Alan Feldman said the increase is related in part to a boom in the Asian-American population in the United States. "It's a growing, thriving community across the country," Feldman said.

The Asian-American population grew from 3.8 percent of the nation's population in 2000 to an estimated 4.3 percent in 2004, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Asians and Asian-Americans accounted for 7 percent of Las Vegas visitors in 2004, up from 4 percent in 2003, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.

American Asians aside, analysts say that the burgeoning number of middle-class customers in China -- a relatively untapped population of entrepreneurs willing to spend money -- represent an even bigger business opportunity for Las Vegas casinos.

Capitalizing on that same Chinese market, Macau casinos are expected for the first time this year or next to win more money from gamblers than Las Vegas Strip properties. Experts say intensifying competition in the casino industry has already resulted in increasing Chinese New Year traffic on the Strip.

Chinese New Year is a clear example of how casinos have become savvier in marketing to specific customer segments as a way to boost overall business, they say. Those segments include Hispanics and Asians as well as nonracial and ethnic groups such as single people and gay couples.

"No longer are Chinese living in just Chinatowns in San Francisco and New York," Las Vegas casino consultant Jeffrey Compton said. "They are dispersed throughout the general population. They can come and celebrate their ethnicity in Las Vegas in a way that they might not be able to do at home."

In spite of a growing number of public events around Chinese New Year, holiday celebrations are primarily centered on private parties for high rollers. Wynn Las Vegas -- which claims to own the biggest chunk of the Strip's baccarat market -- isn't offering public events, instead hosting a private gala for more than 1,400 people that will include a traditional dragon dance. Other major properties will also host private events.

Chinese New Year still flies "under the radar" for the average Las Vegas visitor, Compton said. That might change in the future, some experts say. As a tourism destination, Las Vegas could do a much better job marketing Chinese New Year, which has the potential to become a more profitable event on par with New Year's Eve, said Jonathan Galaviz, a casino consultant specializing in the Asian market.

Rather than sponsoring ad-hoc events, Strip properties could coordinate a much larger, citywide celebration that recognizes the importance of the Lunar New Year, Galaviz said. "I really think Las Vegas, as a global tourism destination, needs to learn how to sell itself better over Chinese New Year in the coming years," he said. "It may take an organization like the LVCVA to consolidate the marketing of Las Vegas as a global Chinese New Year destination."

Thanks to Liz Benston

Sharing secrets of Mirage's special garden

Las Vegas may have a lot of secrets, but one that it wants to share is a special garden that Siegfried & Roy developed at The Mirage.

Tucked behind The Mirage are some of the rarest big cats in the world, as well as a home for frolicking, delightful dolphins. It's called The Secret Garden of Siegfried & Roy and is a result of the magicians' love for animals.

"Long ago," says Siegfried Fischbacher, "Roy and I realized that everything that happens to this planet is man's responsibility. Our responsibility. After living and working with some of the world's most magnificent creatures, we felt the threat of their loss. So we felt compelled to create a safe environment -- an environment in which these animals could live in serenity."

And that's exactly what these animals do. Royal White Tigers, black panthers, snow leopards and Asian elephants wander about lush surroundings, enjoying their quiet life, while only a short distance away, the glitz, glamour and excitement of Las Vegas goes on non-stop. To these beautiful animals the Strip might as well be in another country.

There are no performances and never have been. No trainers making the tigers go through hoops or ride the backs of elephants, but just watching them can mesmerize you. Every time I have gone, I had planned on staying only a short time, but found that I could easily spend several hours enjoying not only the four-legged animals, but those fun-loving and adorable dolphins as well.

The Dolphin Habitat is a 2.5-million-gallon home to a family of Atlantic bottlenose dolphins. It was created to provide a healthy and happy environment for dolphins, as well as to educate the public about marine mammals and their environment . What's interesting is that most of the dolphins were born here. Kind of funny to think of dolphins being born in the middle of a desert, but then, nothing that happens in Las Vegas surprises me any more. Guided tours for the public are conducted throughout the day.

And here's something really cool. You can become a trainer for a day, working side-by-side, fin-to-fin with the official dolphin trainers. You'll get to feed the dolphins, learn to train the dolphins, dine with the dolphins and receive a complimentary trainer's shirt. What a way to impress your friends back home. For pricing and information, call (702)792-7889.

The Secret Garden is open Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday from 11 a.m.-5 p.m.; Saturday and Sunday, 10 a.m.-5 p.m. The Dolphin Habitat's hours are Mon.-Fri. 11 a.m.-7 p.m. and Saturday and Sunday from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. Admission is $10 (that includes both Habitats) with kids under 11 getting in free. On Wednesdays, when the Secret Garden is closed, the Dolphin Habitat charges $5, and kids under 11 still get in for nothing.

The Harrah's Effect

It's continuing to happen at the Imperial Palace now that they have been bought by Harrah's. Beginning Friday, Jan. 20, the Imperial Palace Teahouse Coffee Shop will no longer serve the Imperial Buffet. This eliminates the daily champagne brunch and the all-you-can-eat prime rib dinner buffet.

New Blackjack Option Turns Tables on Dealers

My personal observation from this new option is that I doubt that I would ever use it unless I had been counting cards and felt real strong about the number as it indicates below. In otherwords, I would probably never use it, but it sounds like many others might give it a try.

A revolutionary new blackjack option called "Casino Surrender", which has been creating a stir in Las Vegas since its debut at the Stardust on The Strip last April, has the potential to become a standard feature of the game everywhere it's played before too long if the early returns are any indication.

Casino Surrender is not to be confused with standard surrender, an option that some casinos offer whereby the player can elect to forfeit half of his bet to the house prior to the hand being played out if his two-card dealt hand is in a statistical position of weakness against the dealer's up-card. Nor is it to be confused with blackjack carnival, or "gimmick", side bets that pack an inordinate house advantage and are designed to be a constant drain on the bankrolls of players who chase improbable side bonus payouts.

Here, in a nutshell, is how Casino Surrender works: If you are holding a two-card 20 (10-10 or A-9) and the dealer is showing a 10-value up-card and has already confirmed he doesn't have a blackjack (21), you can force the casino to surrender and in return take your original bet back plus collect from the house half its value in winnings.

For example, say you have a $50 bet on the table and you elect to exercise the option. Instead of playing out the hand and risk a "push" (win nothing), or worse yet, watch the dealer pull to 21 (lose everything), you can take your $50 bet back PLUS the dealer will pay you $25. It's a guaranteed win without the gamble.

Casino Surrender is the brain child of Frank Mugnolo, president and CEO of Casino Gaming LLC of Bellwood, Illinois. A former CPA, he founded the company when he realized the blackjack option he came up with and subsequently patented was something both casinos and players would embrace.

"When I first started studying whether or not this would be a viable option, I speculated that players probably win 70 percent of the time when they're holding a 20," Mugnolo said. "Then I had Gaming Laboratories International (GLI) in Lakewood, New Jersey run a test and it revealed players stand to win only 55.46 to 58.53 percent of the time. I looked at my dad and said, 'We've got something here. I think we can make it work'."

Mugnolo put together a marketing kit and sent it to the director of table games at the Stardust Casino & Hotel in Las Vegas. Shortly thereafter came the good news: "He telephoned me and said, 'Frank, I like this option. There's only one way to find out if it works: Let's try it.' It debuted on April 22 of this year at one table that was open only on weekends. Then it went to two tables, then to a table open all the time. Now it's on over half of the blackjack tables at the Stardust and will eventually be on all of them. They're even planning to have a Casino Surrender blackjack tournament early in 2006."

The beauty of Casino Surrender is that it has appeal to all levels of blackjack players, no matter how much you wager or no matter how skilled you are. "Every bettor has a price," Mugnolo claims. "There comes a time when, given this option, you decide to take the guaranteed win. I saw a player take it at the Stardust with a $3,000 wager in the betting circle. I also saw a lady take it three times when she had a $2 bet. Why? The reason is this simple: They won."

At the present time the option is licensed in Nevada, Mississippi and Indiana and has been placed on 70 tables in 12 casinos in less than eight months. In the Midwest you can find the option at the Blue Chip Casino & Hotel in Michigan City, Indiana.

The upside for casinos is that since players statistically stand to win on 20 against a dealer 10 more often than they lose, they can get away with paying off 50 percent on the bet instead of even money. Yet GLI ascertained that when an expert player determines the count is plus four or higher, using the strategy will increase the player's return by up to 0.2299 percent while the house edge on the overall blackjack game will decrease to as low as 0.9862 and 0.9889 percent on six and eight deck games, respectively. But there's value for average players as well. Sure, it's a give-and-take proposition between players and the house, but there's a lot to be said for eliminating the gamble and replacing it with a guaranteed win under the right set of circumstances.

Thanks to John Brokopp

As Visitors Keep Coming, Las Vegas Faces Many Challenges

Las Vegas' travel industry is growing faster than its airports and roadways can handle. And like it or not, widespread traffic jams and frequent backups at McCarran International could become increasingly common if the city's recent success continues.

Rossi Ralenkotter, president of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, and Clark County Aviation Director Randall Walker on Tuesday shared their vision of the future with the Clark County Commission.

Both spoke of new developments designed to fuel the robust economic growth most cities crave. But both also conceded that development must include new infrastructure to prevent the community from choking on an overabundance of visitors.

"Our goal, of course, is never to allow airport capacity to be an impediment to the economic growth of the community," Walker said. "We've been successful to this point. "But based on what we've seen, it's going to be a real challenge" going forward.

Ralenkotter, citing the city's historic "can do" attitude, believes a solution will be found. But his presentation also outlined the many growth-related challenges in store. Last year's visitor count has not been calculated, but Ralenkotter said it probably exceeded 38 million. That would eclipse 2004's record-high 37.4 million. Looking forward based upon recent trends, he estimated Las Vegas could host between 49 million and 59.2 million visitors by 2015. Since nearly half of all local travelers arrive by air, any growth will tax McCarran.

The nation's sixth-busiest airport is already nearing its ultimate capacity of 53 million annual passengers, a limit imposed by a runway system that cannot be expanded because of nearby development.

Relief from a proposed second international airport in Ivanpah Valley is unlikely until 2017 at the earliest, Walker added, which means McCarran must expand to capacity, then squeeze in as many travelers as possible without alienating them with unreasonable delays.

McCarran now has 94 gates and will expand to 103 in early 2008 when a fourth D-gates concourse debuts. The airport's ultimate 117-gate limit will arrive in early 2011, when Terminal 3 opens near Russell Road. The airport processes about 450,000 passengers per gate per year, well above the industry standard of 400,000, Walker said.

"Using the convention authority's midrange projection, we have to be able to do a lot more than 450,000 passengers per gate if we're going to be able to accommodate the growth," Walker said. "Can we get more passengers through our existing gates? We can, to an extent. ... But that really puts a large stress on the facility."

Ticketing kiosks, off-site baggage check-in and in-line baggage screening systems are among the improvements needed to maximize McCarran's efficiency, he added.

Year-end passenger data has not been calculated, but McCarran probably hosted 44.2 million arriving and departing passengers last year. That would top an airport-best count of nearly 41.5 million set in 2004.

Other data showed by Ralenkotter indicate likely congestion to come at McCarran. With the Dec. 22 debut of the South Coast, the Las Vegas Valley ended 2005 with approximately 134,200 guest rooms, up from 90,046 in 1995. By 2015, however, construction announced or under way could increase that count to 180,000 to 210,000 rooms. Numerous supporting projects such as shopping malls and convention centers are also planned to fill those rooms.

"The confidence that corporate America and the entrepreneurs of Clark County have in the destination is demonstrated in these numbers," Ralenkotter said. He added, "Remember, there are some projects that have not been proposed yet that could be added to this mix, increasing the number of rooms."

Citywide hotel occupancy typically hovers in the mid- to upper-80 percent range. To maintain that level, Las Vegas must attract 200,000 new annual visitors for every 1,000 rooms added, Ralenkotter said. Each hotel room added produces 320 additional air passengers per year, Walker said. So should the city expand to 180,000 rooms, McCarran would need to process 14.7 million more passengers per year.

Las Vegas' expansion isn't guaranteed, however, given challenges such as cruise lines, tribal casinos and limited air service from several coveted foreign markets. Disruptive events such as Hurricane Katrina or the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks are also a constant concern. "If you take a look at CNN for any one hour, there's probably three or four things happening that could have an impact on Las Vegas," Ralenkotter said.

Growth also isn't entirely dependent upon increased air service. A nearly $1 billion effort to make Interstate 15 an eight-lane highway between Las Vegas and the Los Angeles area is under way, as are plans for a $1.7 billion alternate "superhighway" north of the San Gabriel mountain range. The Hoover Dam bypass should also ease traffic to and from Arizona, Ralenkotter said.

Commissioner Bruce Woodbury suggested to Ralenkotter that the state's resort industry do more to fund necessary highway improvements. Woodbury also questioned Walker on the Federal Aviation Administration's controversial "right turn" proposal involving most flights taking off at McCarran.

The FAA's proposed change has upset many residents and civic leaders who oppose the prospect of jets soaring above Summerlin and the northwest valley. But Walker said McCarran's airspace capacity would drop by more than 1 million passengers annually if some type of right turn is not reintroduced.

County Manager Thom Reilly said staffers are also examining how projected travel industry growth would affect local infrastructure. That report should be presented to the commission next month.

Thanks to Chris Jones